Using the Trump Presidency to Guess Which Movies Will Be Great in 2018

The President of the United States of America does more than just rule the free world; they also have an indirect impact of the movies released while they’re in office. Depending on which political party holds the White House, different genres of movies are more or less likely to have a great entry released during their term.

The president obviously isn’t making these movies, but who’s in power is indicative of the country’s collective state of mind. So of course Hollywood is going to work to exploit those feelings (for $$$) by trying to make more movies that reflect our collective hopes and fears. And when Hollywood devotes more time/energy/money into something, chances are they’ll create at least a few great things.

Let’s look at Trump’s first year as an example. As you’ll see below, the genre most likely to have a great release during a Republican president is horror. In the horror genre, 2017 saw the release of both It and Get Out. A great war movie also has a stronger chance of being released during a Republican presidency, and 2017 produced a great one in Dunkirk. (Of course, these movies were planned and in production before Trump took office, but the national mood that made it their time also made it Trump’s time, even if their purposes and his purposes, their audiences and his audience, may differ.) The same kinds of trends hold true for Obama, both Bushes, and more.

Our Method

Keeping things very simple, we took the 50 greatest American movies made in a number of different genres between 1961 and 2017. We started with JFK taking office in 1961 because his presidency in many ways set up the differences between the two modern major political parties (and gives us a nearly equal split in terms of years in office for each party.) We made a number line for each genre and moved left/right depending on whose term the movie was made during. The further the line moved away from center, the more likely it is we’ll see a great movie from that genre during a political party’s reign.

So here are the historical values, and some kinds of movies to look out for in 2018 that could be great!

Horror (+38% More Likely During Republican Presidencies)

Flickchart’s Top 10¹ American² Horror³ Movies, 1961-2017:

¹The top 50 in each genre were used for data analysis; the top 10 is not always reflective of the general trend (see the War entry, for example.)
²Country of origin is often debatable.A good-faith effort has been made to include films that are primarily American or for American audiences, but the American presidency affects the entire world to some degree, and ambiguous cases remain.
³Some movies belong to multiple genres on this list. Genres are of course debatable, but existing Flickchart genre tags are used.

• Alien (Democratic)
• The Shining (Democratic)
• Aliens (Republican)
• Jaws (Republican)
• The Thing (Republican)
• Predator (Republican)
• Rosemary’s Baby (Democratic)
• Evil Dead II (Republican)
• An American Werewolf in London (Republican)
• Night of the Living Dead (Democratic)

2018’s Potentially Great Horror Movies:

• A Quiet Place
• Winchester
• The Purge: The Island
• Halloween
• Patient Zero

Action (+27% More Likely During Republican Presidencies)

Flickchart’s Top 10 American Action Movies, 1961-2017:

• Star Wars (Democratic)
• The Empire Strikes Back (Democratic)
• Raiders of the Lost Ark (Republican)
• Return of the Jedi (Republican)
• The Dark Knight (Republican)
• Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (Republican)
• Die Hard (Republican)
• The Matrix (Democratic)
• Blade Runner (Republican)
• Terminator 2: Judgment Day (Republican)

2018’s Potentially Great Action Movies:

• Avengers: Infinity War
• Black Panther
• The Predator
• Deadpool 2
• Aquaman
• Tomb Raider
• Rampage
• Gringo
• Skyscraper

War (+22% More Likely During Republican Presidencies)

Flickchart’s Top 10 American War Movies, 1961-2017:

• Apocalypse Now (Democratic)
• Schindler’s List (Democratic)
• Saving Private Ryan (Democratic)
• Full Metal Jacket (Republican)
• Inglourious Basterds (Democratic)
• The Great Escape (Democratic)
• Braveheart (Democratic)
• The Deer Hunter (Democratic)
• Platoon (Republican)
• The Dirty Dozen (Democratic)

2018’s Potentially Great War Movies:

• Surprisingly, nothing really jumps out. 12 Strong turned out on the weak side, and there isn’t much beyond that. There might be a new Terrence Malick war movie, but he’s been so hit-or-miss lately that it’s hard to say how that’ll turn out.

Crime (Neutral)

Flickchart’s Top 10 American Crime Movies, 1961-2017:

• The Godfather (Republican)
• Pulp Fiction (Democratic)
• The Godfather Part II (Republican)
• Goodfellas (Republican)
• The Dark Knight (Republican)
• Reservoir Dogs (Republican)
• The Silence of the Lambs (Republican)
• Se7en (Democratic)
• Die Hard (Republican)
• The Usual Suspects (Democratic)

2018’s Potentially Great Crime Movies:

• Ocean’s 8
• The Irishman
• Sicario 2
• White Boy Rick

Fantasy (4% More Likely During Democratic Presidencies)

Flickchart’s Top 10 American Fantasy Movies, 1961-2017:

• Ghostbusters (Republican)
• The Princess Bride (Republican)
• Toy Story (Democratic)
• Groundhog Day (Democratic)
• Jurassic Park (Democratic)
• The Lion King (Democratic)
• E.T. (Republican)
• The Green Mile (Democratic)
• Monsters, Inc. (Republican)
• Toy Story 2 (Republican)

2018’s Potentially Great Fantasy Movies:

• A Wrinkle in Time
• Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
• Mary Poppins Returns

Drama (+27% More Likely During Democratic Presidencies)

Flickchart’s Top 10 American Dramas, 1961-2017:

• The Godfather (Republican)
• The Shawshank Redemption (Democratic)
• The Godfather Part II (Republican)
• Fight Club (Democratic)
• Goodfellas (Republican)
• One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest (Republican)
• Taxi Driver (Republican)
• Apocalypse Now (Democratic)
• Schindler’s List (Democratic)
• Saving Private Ryan (Democratic)

2018’s Potentially Great Dramas:

• Annihilation
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• The 15:17 to Paris
• Mary Queen of Scots
• A Star Is Born
• Backseat
• First Man
• Mary Magdalene
• Boy Erased

Sci-Fi (+27% More Likely During Democratic Presidencies)

Flickchart’s Top 10 American Sci-Fi Movies, 1961-2017:

• Star Wars (Democratic)
• The Empire Strikes Back (Democratic)
• Return of the Jedi (Republican)
• Back to the Future (Republican)
• Alien (Democratic)
• Ghostbusters (Republican)
• The Matrix (Democratic)
• Blade Runner (Republican)
• Terminator 2: Judgment Day (Republican)
• A Clockwork Orange (Republican)

2018’s Potentially Great Sci-Fi Movies:

• Solo: A Star Wars Story
• X-Men: Dark Phoenix
• Ready Player One
• Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
• Ant-Man and the Wasp
• Mortal Engines
• Pacific Rim Uprising
• Hellboy
• The Meg
• Replicas
• Mute
• The Man Who Killed Don Quixote

Comedy (+38% More Likely During Democratic Presidencies)

Flickchart’s Top 10 American Comedy Movies, 1961-2017:

• Back to the Future (Republican)
• Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade (Republican)
• Dr. Strangelove (Democratic)
• Ghostbusters (Republican)
• The Princess Bride (Republican)
• Ferris Bueller’s Day Off (Republican)
• Toy Story (Democratic)
• The Big Lebowski (Democratic)
• Groundhog Day (Democratic)
• Annie Hall (Democratic)

2018’s Potentially Great Comedy Movies:

• Game Night
• Blockers
• Super Troopers 2

Romance (+50% More Likely During Democratic Presidencies)

Flickchart’s Top 10 Romance Movies, 1961-2017:

• The Princess Bride (Republican)
• Forrest Gump (Democratic)
• Groundhog Day (Democratic)
• Days of Heaven (Democratic)
• Annie Hall (Democratic)
• Good Will Hunting (Democratic)
• Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Republican)
• Manhattan (Democratic)
• Charade (Democratic)
• Bonnie and Clyde (Democratic)

2018’s Potentially Great Romance Movies:

• Overboard
• Every Day
• Ophelia

Animation (+70% More Likely During Democratic Presidencies)

Flickchart’s Top 10 American Animated Movies, 1961-2017:

• Toy Story (Democratic)
• The Lion King (Democratic)
• WALL-E (Republican)
• Finding Nemo (Republican)
• The Incredibles (Republican)
• Monsters, Inc. (Republican)
• Toy Story 2 (Democratic)
• Aladdin (Republican)
• Up (Democratic)
• Who Framed Roger Rabbit (Republican)

2018’s Potentially Great Animated Movies:

• Isle of Dogs
• The Grinch
• Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
• Incredibles 2
• Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck-It Ralph 2
• Early Man
• Sherlock Gnomes
• Smallfoot

We’ll leave it up to you to decide why certain types of movies are more common or more funded, and thus have a better chance of being great, during certain administrations. And if you’re among the 56% of Americans that explicitly disapprove of the job President Trump is doing, at least you’ll get to enjoy some great action movies this year!